This will be long.  I apologize.  In fact, it’s going to take two posts.  This one is the easy one!

Let’s get this over with first: here’s the methodology/model, where things stood after week 19, and where things stood after week 20, and then there’s last week.  There’s also the Google Drive spreadsheet, which you’ll want to look over if you’re of a mind to see how this progresses.

Here are the final predicted standings:

What a difference a week makes: Tech was looking to have home ice before last weekend’s sweep by Alaska; then they were on the outside looking in; now they’re in a five-way tie at 28 points!

Oh, dear God in Heaven … let’s break this tie.

1. No head-to-head comparisons can be used because the teams involved didn’t all play each other four times.
2. Conference wins puts Alaska in 3rd.
3. The team-by-team tiebreakers are on W% down the table. As such, I looked at the schedule for each of the four teams, and:
a) Everyone got 25% of their points against Ferris save Anchorage (0.000), who gets 7th as a result.
b) Of the three remaining schools, BG has the highest W% against Mankato (.500) and gets 4th.
c) Between Bemidji (.250) and Tech (.000), the Beavers have the higher ranking against the Mavs, but this is based on the premise that the Huskies don’t pick up any points in Mankato. If the Huskies pick up any points in Mankato, they’d have at least home ice and would be 3/4 with the Nanooks. But for the purpose of evaluating the predictive model as show, BSU would get 5th and MTU 6th.

About the Tech-Mankato result:  if the Huskies pick up a tie in Mankato, they don’t have more conference wins (12) than the Nanooks (13), but they have a points advantage (29 v. 28) … but … MTU does have a HTH comparison with Alaska  (season split); they’d have the same number of conference wins (13); so it comes down to W% against the Bulldogs, which has the Huskies at .500 while the Nanooks are predicted to be just .250. If Alaska sweeps Ferris (taking them to 14 league wins), we’re not having this conversation unless Tech also sweeps Mankato, and then Huskies get third — each is .500 with Ferris; MTU has the edge against Mankato —  with the Nanooks in fourth. Phew.

Chaos, man, chaos.  Best/worst to follow later this week, as this is the point that I’d said that I would do it.  However, this SQC exam beckons…

P.S. Here is the entire text from the WCHA Manual:

WCHA Tie-Breaking Procedures

For Playoff Seeding Only

In regular-season competition, each Western Collegiate Hockey Association team shall accumulate points from each WCHA contest (i.e., a contest between teams representing two WCHA member institutions played as part of the conference schedule), receiving two points for each game won in regulation time or overtime, and one point for each game tied at the conclusion of overtime. The team accumulating the greatest number of points in regular-season WCHA contests shall be the WCHA Champion. If two or more teams are tied for the Championship, they shall be consid- ered co-champions.

Seeding for the WCHA Tournament

If two or more teams have accumulated the same number of points shall be determined according to the following procedure:

A) If two or more teams are tied, and all teams tied have played four contests against one another, then the team with the most accumulated points from these head to head contests will be granted the higher seed.

B) If two or more teams are still tied (or all teams tied have not played four contests against one another) the highest seed will go to the team with the greater number of conference wins.

C) If not determined by A) or B) above, the recipient of the highest seed shall be determined by comparison of the winning percentages of the teams tied, against the remaining highest ranked WCHA team successively, until the determination is accomplished, or all WCHA contests have been considered.

In the event of multiple ties within the standings that become depen- dent on one another for determination, the procedure shall be applied to the highest tie first, using combined winning percentage against all teams involved in the lower tie(s) and continuing through the order if needed. If this fails to break the highest tie, the procedure shall be applied to the next highest tie (and so on if needed), using combined winning percentage against all tied teams as needed when proceeding through the standings.

D) If not determined by A), or B), or C), the recipient of the higher seed will be determined by “winning margin” during conference contests.

“Winning margin” = WCHA conference goals for minus WCHA conference goals against.

In the event of multiple ties within the standings that reach this step, the procedure shall be applied first to the highest tie in the standings. If this fails to break the highest tie, the procedure shall be applied to the next highest tie (and so on if needed) until any tie is broken and all procedures are re-started.

E) If not determined by A), or B), or C), or D), the recipient of the higher seed shall be determined by the flip of a coin.

In the event of multiple ties within the standings that reach this step, the procedure shall be applied first to the highest tie in the standings after which all procedures are re-started.

In the case of ties among three or more schools, the criteria will be used in order until a team, or teams, is separated from the top of the pack. At that point, the process will begin anew to break the “new” tie. In other words, when a three-way tie becomes a two-way tie, the two-way tie is treated as a “new” tie and the process begins with the first criterion.

Four more home games remain, and two are Friday and Saturday night against Lake Superior State. Puck drop is 7:07 p.m. both nights, and general admission tickets are free!

You can expect pick up the free general admission tickets at the door. Reserved tickets are available through Ticketmaster and the VBC box office. This week’s promotions are:

• Friday: The first 500 fans receive a set of UAH hockey trading cards. It’s also Weather Awareness Night with the Rocket City Weather Fest.
• Saturday: The first 500 fans Saturday receive a free team photo. The Nashville Predators’ mascot, Gnash, will make a return appearance. UAH’s WCHA Scholar-Athletes will be honored before the game.

If you can’t make the game, there are many ways to follow the action:

• VIDEO: WCHA TV on America One (subscription)
• LIVE STATS: uahchargers.com
• AUDIO: WYSS
  
• TWITTER: @weloveuahhockey (us), @uahhockey (official), @uahchargers (official), @LSSUathletics (official), @LakeStateHockey (unofficial)
  

TEAM COMPARISON
	2013-14 Stats
	WCHA rank in parentheses
1-30-1	Overall record	14-15-1
1-20-1 (10th)	Conference record	10-12-0 (9th)
1.00 (10th)	Goals per game	2.80 (5th)
4.59 (10th)	Goals allowed per game	3.27 (9th)
13.0 (8th)	Penalty minutes per game	12.9 (9th)
7.7% (10th)	Power play	16.5% (6th)
68.0% (10th)	Penalty kill	81.3% (7th)
Matt Salhany (4-7-11) Jack Prince (5-4-9) Chad Brears (5-3-8) Steve Koshey (1-7-8) Frank Misuraca (2-5-7)	Leading scorers	Alex Globke (11-18-29) Colin Campbell (10-22-22) Dan Radke (5-16-21) Kevin Czuczman (9-10-19) Stephen Perfetto (5-13-18)
Carmine Guerriero (16 GS, 3.95 GAA, .903 SV%) Matt Larose (16 GS, 5.20 GAA, .877 SV%)	Goaltending	Kevin Kapalka (15 GS, 2.51 GAA, .931 SV%) Kevin Murdock (15 GS, 3.81 GAA, .891 SV%)

The Chargers are 2-3-1 all-time against the Lakers. Last season in Sault Ste. Marie, UAH won the first game 2-1 before falling 0-4. This is LSSU’s second visit to Huntsville: The Lakers won a pair of one-goal games at the Von Braun Center to start the 2011-12 season.

The Lakers have split their last three series (at Bowling Green, home vs. Alaska-Anchorage, and at Northern Michigan), winning the first game and losing the second in each. They are in ninth place in the WCHA, one point behind Northern Michigan for the eighth and final playoff spot, but only sixth place behind third-place Alaska-Anchorage.

Lake Superior’s leading scorer, Alex Globke, is tied for sixth in the WCHA in points with 29 (leading all league freshmen), and tied for fourth in assists with 18. Kevin Kapalka leads the WCHA in save percentage at .931.

Other previews:

• UAHChargers.com: UAH Welcomes Lake State for Free Admission Weekend
• LSSULakers.com: Lakers vs. Chargers Preview

Carmine Guerriero’s 61-save performance against Minnesota State on Saturday is a new UAH hockey record for saves in a game. But what kind of record did he set?

The Charger hockey record book encompasses all official games from its first varsity season in 1985-86 to the present. Recently, I’ve been researching records for what we call the Chargers’ “modern Division I era.” This era runs from the 1999-2000 season to the present.

For each category in the record book, there’s now a “modern Division I era” record to go with the “all-time varsity” record. The reason: Division I hockey is the big leagues, and deserves its own context. You can’t really compare UAH’s games against top Division I opposition to that of our Division II days. Other programs that moved up to Division I around this time, such as former D-II programs Minnesota State and Bemidji State, also separate their record books this way.

Why does the 1999-2000 season the first of this era? It was the first where the Chargers began playing a consistent, full Division I schedule (and our first in the College Hockey America conference). While UAH declared to be Division I for 1998-99, only about half of that season’s games was against Division I competition.

What about UAH’s first Division I era from 1987-1992? I considered including those games, but the Chargers didn’t play a full, consistent Division I schedule during that period. Only 68 percent of those games were against Division I opponents.

Back to Guerriero: His 61 saves set a new UAH modern Division I era record. The all-time record is 62, set by Barry Friedman against Geneseo State (not a Division I opponent) in 1986.

In case you’re wondering, UAH’s all-time leading scorer is Tony Guzzo with 179 points. UAH’s modern era leading scorer is Jared Ross with 159.

Promotions: As we alerted on Monday, there will be free general admission to the final four home games of the season, starting Friday night against Lake Superior State, courtesy of Huntsville International Airport. This week, free trading cards will be given Friday and free team photos will be given Saturday.

But that’s not all for this week’s series, which is sponsored by AEgis Technologies: Friday is also Weather Awareness Night with the Rocket City Weather Fest, featuring handouts and materials.

On Saturday, representatives from the Nashville Predators will be on hand with a return appearance of their mascot Gnash. Also, UAH’s four WCHA Scholar-Athletes will be honored before the game.

Blue Line Club luncheon: As with every home series, the Blue Line Club will take place this Friday at noon at the Varsity Room in Spragins Hall. Lake Superior State head coach Jim Roque is the special guest speaker. He and UAH coach Mike Corbett will talk about the series.

Zoe’s Kitchen will be catering. Tickets are $8 at the door, but free to Blue Line Club members.

Recruiting update: UAH picked up two more commitments this past week. Forwards Brandon Salerno and Brennan Saulnier are expected to join the Chargers next season.

Salerno is a center with the Waterloo Black Hawks of the United States Hockey League. The 18-year-old from Toronto, who is in his second season in Waterloo, committed on Friday. Salerno has 26 points over the last two seasons.

Salnier, a forward for the Fort McMurray Oil Barons of the Alberta Junior Hockey League, announced his commitment on Tuesday. The Halifax, Nova Scotia, native has 44 points in 54 games this season.

For more on UAH’s verbal commitments, visit our Commitments page.

Around the WCHA: Minnesota State has caught Ferris State atop the WCHA standings. While the Mavericks swept UAH in Mankato, the Bulldogs managed to split their series at Bemidji. While Ferris has two extra league games to play, it is tied with MSU with 34 points. Both have clinched home ice in the first round of the WCHA playoffs.

Behind the Mavericks and Bulldogs is a free for all, with Alaska-Anchorage in third with 26 points, and Lake Superior in ninth, just six points behind UAA and one point out of the eighth and final playoff spot.

Ferris State is No. 6 in the latest USCHO.com poll. FSU is currently the only WCHA team projected to be in the NCAA Tournament, unless the Bulldogs are knocked out of the WCHA Tournament.

THIS WEEK IN THE WCHA
All times Central.
* WCHA game.

Friday, February 21
* Lake Superior State at UAH, 7:07 p.m.
* Alaska-Anchorage at Ferris State, 6:07 p.m.
* Northern Michigan at Michigan Tech, 6:07 p.m.
US Under-18 Team at Bowling Green, 6:07 p.m. (exhibition)

Saturday, February 22
* Lake Superior State at UAH, 7:07 p.m.
* Alaska-Anchorage at Ferris State, 6:07 p.m.
* Michigan Tech at Northern Michigan, 6:07 p.m.

Let’s get this over with first: here’s the methodology/model, where things stood after week 19, and where things stood after week 20.  There’s also the Google Drive spreadsheet, which you’ll want to look over if you’re of a mind to see how this progresses.

Here are the final predicted standings:

What a difference a week makes: Tech was looking to have home ice before last weekend’s sweep by Alaska; now they’re on the outside looking in!

As a reminder: here are the tiebreakers, all with “if two or more teams …” language.  All three tiebreakers are used this week.

1. Head-to-head results if the teams have all played four games against each other.  In a three-team setup, they’d all need eight games against the other two teams to count.
2. Conference wins.
3. A comparison of winning percentages against all teams above them, team-by-team down through the table.

What happened with the model when it hit reality?

1. Alaska went into Houghton and took all four points from a team that was 7-3-3 coming into the weekend, while the Nanooks were 4-6-2.  Sports, man.
2. Bemidji upset Ferris, where they’d been expected to come away with just a tie.  That extra point may be the difference for them, even though it’s not terribly important in the model, as you can see: they jump up a spot, but mainly because Tech free-falls.
3. Anchorage stormed back from 2-0 with two-period goals and then saw Rob Gunderson stop all the overtime shots to get a point out of Friday night’s game; they then took it to BG the next night, winning 5-2.  An extra point gets them out of the morass at 28 points, one which now includes BG.

How does Tech fall so far?  As anyone knows, this is a very close-packed league.  The predicted win totals are 20, 20, 14, 12, 13, 12, 12, 13, 11, 1.  This season has been just as much about hanging on for a tie as it has been winning games.  Michigan Tech went from an expected points total of 30 to 26, and that’s enough of a difference, as you can see above.

About those tiebreakers:

1. Northern Michigan and Alaska-Anchorage played just twice this year, so conference wins breaks the tie at 29 points, and the Wildcats get 3rd.
2. Alaska, Bowing Green, and Bemidji State all have 28 points.  BG played the other schools just twice, so it falls to conference wins, which means Alaska gets 5th, and the Nanooks and Seawolves will play for the second straight weekend, this time in Anchorage.  Hoo boy.
3. To break the tie between BG and Bemidji: again, the teams played just twice, and they have the same conference record, so the comparison goes to win percentage, team-by-team.  Let’s go: Ferris is a .250 split (1-3-0 for Bemidji, 0-1-1 for BG), Mankato is a 2-2-0 for Bowling Green and 1-3-0 for Bemidji.

Lastly, let’s look at the other reason why the model is different: I made a two hand predictions.

1. I have Ferris State splitting with Alaska next weekend.  For one, the travel is hard, and it’s the first time that the Bulldogs have gone to Alaska this year.  They were in a close game against UAH one night when they were in the other far-flung league destination.  For another, Ferris is dominant in Big Rapids (10-1-1) and less so on the road (10-5-2).  Lastly, it’s unlikely that the Bulldogs are going to have their foot 100% on the pedal.  They probably cinch up the #1 spot this weekend against the other team from the 49th state.  They may want to spread minutes around and get guys healthy for the full series in two weeks.
2. The one that may prove controversial in Houghton is Mankato sweeping the Huskies in Week 24 because the Mavs are 13-1-0 at home while the Huskies are a) a bit of a mess, if you listen to their fans, and b) 5-10-2 on the road.  That point does mean that the Huskies make the playoffs, and that may not make me Mayor of Houghton, but it is a strong likelihood.  The only team to win in Mankato is BG (assuming you except the U-18 team) in a 4-3 result in early November.  The Mavs have seven league losses: three in Alaska, the 4-3 loss v. BG, a 4-1 loss at Bemidji, a 4-3 OT loss in Bowing Green, and a 5-2 loss in Marquette.  You’ll have to be good to take a point off of the purple guys at the Verizon Wireless Center.
3. I have Ferris sweeping Lake Superior State.  The seniors will want to go out winners.  This will mean a lot to the Lakers, for sure, but the Dawgs’ only home loss was to St. Lawrence early in the season.  The only team to take a point off of the Bulldogs in WCHA is Bemidji.

I have steeled myself for the hate mail from Houghton.  As always, I welcome comments, criticism, etc.  But I will make this final observation to my beloved Chargers: the model has you losing the last six games.  I believe that you could win any of them on any given night.  Pick off Lake State this weekend?  They miss the playoffs.  Bump off Bemidji?  They then get into Tiebreakersville of a different sort.  Knock off Northern at home that last weekend?  Well, two things happen then: Northern misses the first round, and two first round series would happen in Alaska.  Two.  All aboard the train to Bonkers.

We’ve been discussing this as a staff.  If you could win just one game, where would you like to win it?  We feel that winning at home would be best, but winning upsets the entire apple cart, and our #2 team behind the guys in the BlackBlue and White is Team Chaos.  But when it comes down to it, we really hate Bemidji.  If Bemidji got an early tee time because of a UAH win, well, that would be awesome, even if that win came on the road.

Weather conditions in that part of country have been causing travel issues. UAH leaves tonite & gets here tomorrow a.m.

— Minnesota State Hockey (@MinnStMHockey) February 13, 2014

Whenever they get to Mankato, the Chargers will have to be ready for a test this weekend against the Minnesota State Mavericks. Game times are 7:37 p.m. on Friday and 7:07 p.m. on Saturday. Here’s how you can follow the action.

• VIDEO: WCHA TV on America One (subscription)
• LIVE STATS: msumavericks.com
• AUDIO: KTOE
• TWITTER: @weloveuahhockey (us), @uahhockey (official), @uahchargers (official),
  @Mav Hockey (official), @msumavericks (official), @puckato (Shane Frederick, Mankato Free Press)

TEAM COMPARISON
	2013-14 Stats
	WCHA rank in parentheses
1-28-1	Overall record	17-13-0
1-18-1 (10th)	Conference record	15-7-0 (2nd)
1.07 (10th)	Goals per game	3.07 (4th)
4.63 (10th)	Goals allowed per game	2.73 (5th)
13.2 (9th)	Penalty minutes per game	18.5 (1st)
8.0% (10th)	Power play	25.0% (1st)
68.8% (10th)	Penalty kill	87.2% (1st)
Matt Salhany (4-7-11) Jack Prince (5-4-9) Chad Brears (5-3-8) Steve Koshey (1-7-8) Frank Misuraca (2-5-7)	Leading scorers	JP Lafontaine (18-18-36) Matt Leitner (9-24-33) Johnny Mcinnis (16-11-27) Zach Lehrke (7-14-21) Zach Palmquist (3-14-17)
Carmine Guerriero (15 GS, 3.95 GAA, .899 SV%) Matt Larose (15 GS, 5.28 GAA, .874 SV%)	Goaltending	Cole Huggins (19 GS, 2.24 GAA, .913 SV%) Stephon Williams (11 GS, 3.59 GAA, .856 SV%)

Minnesota State is in the thick of the McNaughton Cup race, just two points behind Ferris State at the top of the standings. The Mavericks have been lethal at home, posting an 11-1 record in Mankato’s Verizon Wireless Center.

Back on Dec. 13-14, the Mavericks swept the Chargers at the Von Braun Center by a couple of 4-1 sc0res. The second game was contentious after back-to-back checking from behind major penalties against UAH’s Frank Misuraca and Ben Reinhardt.

UAH will need a stellar defensive effort to pull off upsets. The Mavericks have the top two scorers in the WCHA in Jean-Paul Lafontaine and Matt Leitner, and Jonny McInnis is tied for fifth.

It would be wise if the Chargers stayed out of the penalty box, as Minnesota State’s power play is one of the best in the country. The Mavericks’ 25 percent efficiency is tied for second in the nation, and Lafontaine leads Division I with 13 power-play goals.

Next weekend, the Chargers return home to play Lake Superior State.

Photo by Timothy Burns

While Saturday’s 10-4 loss at Michigan Tech was bleak, there were a couple of bright spots. The Chargers were able to get a four-spot again, and typically — if not on that night — that means a much greater chance of victory.

One player who had a hand in all four tallies was Jack Prince. His two-goal, two-assist performance was the best UAH has had in over three years.

The last Charger to have a four-point night was Jamie Easton, who had four assists in UAH’s 4-3 win over Bemidji State on January 8, 2011 at the Von Braun Center.

Prince’s first goal of the game, and second point of the night, made the WCHA Plays of the Week:

The Leicester, England native is now second on the team with nine points this season. He is tied with Chad Brears for the team lead in goals with five.

Around the WCHA: The teams at the top of the table took care of business. Ferris State swept a home series against Northern Michigan, and Minnesota State took two at home against Bemidji State. The Bulldogs maintain a two-point lead in first place, and are tied for fourth in the latest USCHO.com poll.

Michigan Tech boosted up to third with its sweep of UAH and five wins in its last six games. Huskies forward Blake Pietila was named the WCHA’s Offensive Player of the Week for his six-point weekend against the Chargers.

Alaska-Anchorage moved into a tie for fourth with idle Bowling Green after splitting at Lake Superior State.

THIS WEEK IN THE WCHA
All times Central.
* WCHA game.

Friday, February 13
* UAH at Minnesota State, 7:37 p.m.
* Alaska at Michigan Tech, 6:07 p.m.
* Lake Superior State at Northern Michigan, 6:07 p.m.
* Ferris State at Bemidji State, 7:37 p.m.
* Bowling Green at Alaska-Anchorage, 10:07 p.m.

Saturday, February 14
* UAH at Minnesota State, 7:07 p.m.
* Alaska at Michigan Tech, 6:07 p.m.
* Lake Superior State at Northern Michigan, 6:07 p.m.
* Ferris State at Bemidji State, 7:07 p.m.
* Bowling Green at Alaska-Anchorage, 10:07 p.m.