Summary: there’s no significant change in the standings, a tiebreaker comes into play, some predicted 3-point weekends could turn the season, and the model is boring and goes for splitskies most of the time.  Oh, and UAH can play the spoiler.  That should be reason enough to stay tuned, Charger fans!

Okay, let’s not blow anything up this week, shall we?  There really isn’t any movement in the prediction save the changes resulting from Ferris and Mankato sweeping Northern and Bemidji; the model picked wins-and-ties for the sweepers.  This is admittedly a weakness in the model: it is going to land on 3-point weekends far more often than 4-point weekends. However, I think that this generally evens out, as a 3-point weekend can also be a 2-point weekend — in any regard, I’m bound for the rules that I made for the model.

No predictions for Weeks 21-24 changed, as the KRACH values didn’t change enough.  In fact, the gaps often narrowed, which is largely the result of the new comparisons being made against a league that mostly does the splits.  I don’t think that it’s likely to change too much, either, as things should generally regress to the mean.  What would change things?  Sweeps, for one, as the only sweeps picked by the model here on out involve UAH.  But sweeps also move KRACH, and that changes expected value calculations.  It’s entirely possible that a sweep will move the needle enough to make the model move.  Unfortunately, I don’t have a ready way to calculate KRACH week-over-week going forward or a Monte Carlo-based simulation that would give us answers like, “What’s the percentage chance that Mankato wins out and gets the #1 seed?”  These are things that I want going forward, and right now I’m in close to the right coursework to make that a possibility for next season.

All four possibilities involve Ferris State:

1. A Ferris sweep of Bemidji, combined with other machinations, might move the model to pick a BG win-and-tie in the final weekend.  The Falcons could use that, as they will be fighting for third with Tech and Northern, which isn’t admittedly a big change (more on that in a sec).
2. A Ferris sweep of Anchorage, which would push the Seawolves closer to 9th, although they start with a higher KRACH.
3. Ferris again at Fairbanks.  The Nanooks will have their season on the line, and Ferris might have their foot off of the gas just ever so little.  A Bulldog sweep would very likely end the home squad’s season.
4. A Ferris sweep of Lake State, which would put the Lakers into 8th and maybe out depending on what Alaska pulls off.

It’s obvious that there are four strata in the table: Ferris and Mankato fighting out for top spot; Tech, BG, and Northern fighting for home ice; Anchorage, Lake, Bemidji, and Fairbanks trying to not be the odd man out; and UAH kicking the can in the parking lot.

Below are the standings going into the 21st weekend of the season:

Games Left is still key: with four weeks left, 60% of the league has just six more chances to win points.  It’s not just how many, too: Northern and Lake State have series at UAH where they can probably pick up four points, but fans of both schools probably shudder thinking about it.  UAH has gone winless at home only once (2011-12), and you can be sure the kids in White, Black, and Blue won’t want to repeat that.  In fact, the Nanooks have to be looking at the table and gritting their teeth over getting just one shot at the Chargers, as the three teams below them still have one more crack at them.

Here are the final predicted standings:

If you want to look at the spreadsheet that powers all of this, it’s available on Google Drive.  Tiebreakers do come into play for 4/5 and 7/8, as Bemidji won the season series (1st tiebreaker) with the Lakers, 3-1, while the Falcons and Wildcats only play twice, leading Northern to get home ice with more league wins (2nd tiebreaker).

For fun and history, you can see where we were last week and when we started this adventure.

The Chargers play Michigan Tech for the first time in a two-game WCHA series. It’s the Winter Carnival up in Houghton, Michigan, with the puck dropping at 6:07 p.m. on Friday and 4:07 p.m. on Saturday.

Here’s how you can follow the action.

• VIDEO: WCHA TV on America One (subscription)
• LIVE STATS: michigantechhuskies.com
• AUDIO: Pasty.net
  
• TWITTER: @weloveuahhockey (us), @uahhockey (official), @uahchargers (official), @TechHockeyGuide (Tech Hockey Guide), @mtuhky (official)
  

TEAM COMPARISON
	2013-14 Stats
	WCHA rank in parentheses
1-26-1	Overall record	10-14-6
1-10-1 (10th)	Conference record	8-8-4 (T-5th)
0.96 (10th)	Goals per game	2.20 (9th)
4.46 (10th)	Goals allowed per game	2.40 (2nd)
12.9 (7th)	Penalty minutes per game	14.8 (4th)
6.5% (10th)	Power play	11.8% (9th)
69.0% (10th)	Penalty kill	85.5% (3rd)
Matt Salhany (4-7-11) Frank Misuraca (2-5-7) Steve Koshey (1-5-6) Chad Brears (4-1-5) Brent Fletcher (2-3-5) Brandon Clowes (1-4-5)	Leading scorers	Alex Petan (11-11-22) Blake Pietila (4-14-18) Tanner Kero (9-8-17) Shane Hanne (2-12-14) Mike Neville (2-11-13)
Carmine Guerriero (14 GS, 3.86 GAA, .900 SV%) Matt Larose (14 GS, 5.00 GAA, .877 SV%)	Goaltending	Pheonix Copley (19 GS, 2.20 GAA, .919 SV%) Jamie Phillips (10 GS, 2.62 GAA, .901 SV%)

The first meeting between these two programs could be a low-scoring affair. The Chargers and Huskies rank at the bottom of the WCHA in offense in general and the power play in particular.

Michigan Tech’s calling card has been its defense, which is second in the league and anchored by sophomore goaltender Pheonix Copley. Copley is second in the WCHA in goals against average and third in save percentage.

While not part of the Huskies’ leading scorers, the hottest forwards for MTU are the Johnstone brothers, David and Jacob. Each tallied three goals in the Huskies’ sweep of Bowling Green in Ohio last week.

The Chargers are trying to play spoiler as Michigan Tech is in a battle for positioning and a potential first-round playoff series in Houghton.

Next week, UAH heads to Minnesota State to finish up a three-week road swing. The Chargers host Lake Superior State on Feb. 21-22.

Karlis Zirnis takes a shot during a game in 2001.
(Photo by UAH Sports Information)

Karlis Zirnis, a Charger winger from 1999-2003, will be an assistant coach for Latvia at the Olympic Games in Sochi, Russia.

“Igor” scored 119 career points at UAH, which trails only Jared Ross for most in the Chargers’ modern Division I era and is 15th all-time. His 46 goals is third in UAH’s modern Division I era, and his 73 assists is second. Zirnis led the Chargers in scoring in 2000-01 (37 points) and 2001-02 (31).

“I’m nervous and I’m excited,” Zirnis told The Tennesseean. “I’m definitely more excited than nervous. It’s going to be a great event and a great opportunity.”

While in Sochi, Zirnis will be coaching a current player in the WCHA: Bowling Green defenseman Ralfs Freibergs. Both Zirnis and Freibergs are natives of Riga, Latvia.

“Everyone goes there to compete for a medal, and that is our ultimate goal and one I believe is attainable,” Zirnis said.

Zirnis currently teaches youth hockey in Franklin, Tennessee, and lives in Fairview.

Another Thunder commitment: Connor Wood, a forward on the Thunder AAA Under-18 roster, committed to UAH on Saturday. He is expected to join the Chargers for the 2015-16 season.

Wood, a native of Buford, Georgia, has 14 goals and 23 assists for 37 points in 44 games played this season with the Thunder, whose general manager is UAH alum Nathan Bowen (’00). He’ll tender next season in the North American Hockey League’s Amarillo Bulls, who are coached by former UAH assistant coach Dennis Williams.

Wood is the second player from the Thunder who has committed to the Chargers. Defenseman and Huntsville native Ted Rotenberger committed last summer to UAH, also for the 2015-16 season.

Check out our commitments page for more information on incoming recruits.

Around the WCHA: With Ferris State idle, Minnesota State had a chance to catch up to the first-place Bulldogs by taking two in Northern Michigan. Friday night did not go according to plan for the Mavericks, who allowed four third-period goals in  5-2 loss. MSU rebounded nicely on Saturday, drilling the Wildcats 5-1, and now trail Ferris State by only two points.

Bowling Green also had a chance to climb closer to Ferris, but was stunned at home by a Michigan Tech team that was 3-10-2 on the road coming in. The Huskies, who host UAH this week, won 5-2 on Friday and got a Blake Pietila goal in overtime to win 5-4 on Saturday. The Falcons stay in third place, five points out of first.

Alaska moved into a tie for fifth after sweeping UAH. The Nanooks needed it, as the rest of the schedule does not favor Alaska making the WCHA playoffs.

Ferris State moved up to No. 5 in this week’s USCHO.com poll. Only Minnesota State received votes. The Bulldogs host Northern Michigan this weekend, while the Mavericks entertain Bemidji State. Alaska-Anchorage, currently in fourth, hosts Lake Superior.

THIS WEEK IN THE WCHA
All times Central.
* WCHA game.

Friday, February 7
* UAH at Michigan Tech, 6:07 p.m.
* Northern Michigan at Ferris State, 6:07 p.m.
* Alaska-Anchorage at Lake Superior State, 6:37 p.m.
* Bemidji State at Minnesota State, 7:37 p.m.

Saturday, February 1
* UAH at Michigan Tech, 4:07 p.m.
* Northern Michigan at Ferris State, 6:07 p.m.
* Alaska-Anchorage at Lake Superior State, 6:07 p.m.
* Bemidji State at Minnesota State, 7:07 p.m.

The Chargers travel to Houghton, Michigan, this weekend to play Michigan Tech for the first time ever.* The new WCHA has finally brought these programs together on the ice.

But Michigan Tech is a more than a new conference mate. Like UAH, it is a school that prides itself on its engineering programs.

Michigan Technological University was founded in 1885 as Michigan Mining School, which specialized in training mining engineers. The university adopted its current name in 1964 after expanding its engineering curriculum to include chemical, electrical, civil, mechanical, and geological engineering, as well as many other science-related fields. Today, MTU has one of the top engineering graduate schools in the country.** Michigan Tech also has a similar enrollment to UAH at over 7,000 students with over 5,000 undergrads.

So we know MTU can bring it with academics. But what about their hockey prowess? While the Huskies have seen better days, they have a rich tradition that’s coming up to 100 years.

The MacNaughton Cup, which goes to the WCHA regular-season champion, is owned by Michigan Tech.

Hockey history

Like UAH, Michigan Tech is primarily a Division II school that plays Division I hockey. The Huskies have played hockey since 1919, and the program has seen both the highest highs and lowest lows.

Michigan Tech has three Division I national championships (1962, 1965, and 1975), and has been to the Frozen Four 10 times. The last time, however, was in 1981, which is also the last time the Huskies made the NCAA Tournament. One of the founding members of the WCHA, Michigan Tech has seven regular-season titles and nine tournament titles.

Michigan Tech is the trustee of the MacNaughton Cup, which goes to the winner of the WCHA regular season. Whichever league MTU is in, the MacNaughton Cup follows, as was the case when the program switched to the CCHA in 1981 and returned to the WCHA in 1984.

MTU’s recent history has not been so kind, as its last winning season was in 1992-93. The lowest point came in the 1999-2000 season, when the Huskies went 4-34 and set an NCAA record for losses in a season.***

For news about the Huskies, visit our counterparts at Tech Hockey Guide.

Winter Carnival

Phi Kappa Tau’s winning snow statue in 2010: “A Classic Mario Plight Portrayed in Snowy White.” (Photo by Michigan Technological University)

As timing would have it, the Chargers’ first trip to Houghton just happens to be during one of Michigan Tech’s biggest traditions — the Winter Carnival. The yearly event started in 1922 and features many student activities, including snow statue, broomball, curling, and other snow-related competitions. Some of the snow and ice statues can be pretty impressive.

The Huskies always have a WCHA series during the Winter Carnival. While some may lament that UAH is this year’s Carnival opponent instead of a, say, more glamorous team, it’s just the way the schedule rotation landed.

So there’s your primer on Michigan Tech. Will a rivalry form between these two engineering-rich, hockey schools? We’ll start finding out Friday night.

* Michigan Tech is one of four current Division I programs (out of 58) UAH has not yet played. The others are Boston University, Dartmouth, and Union College.

** UAH and Michigan Tech are tied for 89th for best engineering graduate schools according to U.S. News & World Report rankings in 2013.

*** Not avoiding the elephant in the room, UAH is on pace to break Tech’s record this season, in case the Huskies needed any extra incentive to win this weekend.

Update: I goofed!  I had Tech getting swept, and probably another error as well.  The GDocs has the week-by-week, but it radically changed the below.  Thanks to oldish husky on USCHO for finding the problem.  I regret the error.

It’s (past) time to revisit our methodology for predicting the 2014 WCHA Playoff Race.  Games haven’t gone as expected, as Ferris State has taken its lumps, UAH took a point off of Anchorage, and Michigan Tech swept BG this weekend.  Will Mankato be able to keep pace?  Who will miss out on the playoffs?  Below are the standings going into the 20th weekend of the season:

That Games Left bit is the key: with five weeks left, teams — like UAH — will be able to play ten more games, but as you can see, Bowling Green and Alaska have just six more chances to win points.  As we’ll see, this isn’t a big problem for Bowling Green, as the top three schools have separated from the rest of the pack, where 4-7 is going to be the dog’s breakfast broken by the Byzantine tiebreakers that the league has in place.  We’ll look into that as things get closer to fruition (i.e., Week 24).  Here are the final predicted standings

As you can see, the Nanooks suffer from two problems: 1) few games left to play, with all the teams around them having eight or ten left and 2) their remaining series being Tech on the road, Ferris at home, and Anchorage at home for the Governor’s Cup.  Compare that to all four teams below them playing UAH, and the fall is understandable.

If you want to look at the spreadsheet that powers all of this, it’s available on Google Drive.  One fun thing to note is that only three league teams are predicted to finish with losing records.  As UAH improves, this will prove to be an anomaly.