UAH needs two wins in its next four games to clinch a playoff spot regardless of what UAA or LSSU do.
— Charger Hockey Journal (@ChargerHockeyJn) February 22, 2015
UAH and UAA played just two games this year, so the first relevant tiebreaker is B, # of conference wins. UAA winning out gets the to 8.
— Charger Hockey Journal (@ChargerHockeyJn) February 22, 2015
If UAH and LSSU tie in final points, UAH’s 2-1-1 record in the season standings wins them the A tiebreaker.
— Charger Hockey Journal (@ChargerHockeyJn) February 22, 2015
The highest that UAH can get into is 5th, and that requires UAH to sweep out, UAA to sweep UAF, and FSU to go winless. That’s improbable.
— Charger Hockey Journal (@ChargerHockeyJn) February 22, 2015
In short: UAH could have realistically finished higher than 7th with any points against Ferris this weekend, especially with a sweep that would have put the Chargers in 6th and, with 19 points in hand, a glimmer of a shot at home ice. Instead, Ferris and Northern swept, providing significant separation between 6th and 7th and keeping the Falcons out of a run for the McNaughton.
Lastly:
If it’s just UAA-UAH. “@NeilVanSwol: @weloveuahhockey isn't it 1 win and a tie regardless of what UAA does and we go to tie breaker C.”
— Charger Hockey Journal (@ChargerHockeyJn) February 22, 2015
If and only if there’s not a situation where UAH, LSSU, and UAA are all tied. If, say, UAA goes 4-0-0, UAH goes 1-2-1, and LSSU goes 2-1-1, all three teams would have 18 points, with all teams at 8-18-2.
A tiebreaker is invalid, as the only four-game series amongst the three is UAH-LSSU.
B tiebreaker is invalid, as all teams have eight conference wins.
C tiebreaker: UAH would be 1.000 against UAA and .625 against LSSU. LSSU and UAA split their season series. That pulls UAH out of the tiebreaker and into 7th (great question, Neil! I hadn’t thought about it).
D tiebreaker: With UAA and LSSU still tied up, you go to winning percentage down the table.
UAA hasn’t played BG yet (and will this weekend in Anchorage), and the Seawolves were swept by MTU and MSU. LSSU went 1-2-1 against BG. In this scenario, Anchorage wins because they’d be 2-0-0 against the Falcons and would win the third comparison. In the unlikely sequence where the Falcons lose out and the Beavers win out, LSSU would win the third comparison, having swept Bemidji while UAA went winless.
What if LSSU passes the Chargers? Well, at that point, UAH and UAA are battling it out, and UAH wins the C tiebreaker if the teams end up tied at 8-18-2. If UAH did something crazy like end up at 7-17-4, UAA would win.
Isn’t this fun?